Adjusting Forecast History
This article covers how to adjust forecast history via the Algorithm tab. To learn more about the Algorithm tab, please review the article Algorithms Tab.
First, a few points for consideration when editing history:
- History editing can be made at any level or context within the hierarchy.
- You may create a new temporary hierarchy for editing purposes. Any edits made in the temporary hierarchy will be maintained. After making changes in the temporary hierarchy you may change the hierarchy back to the original forecast hierarchy.
- The law of zero's are applicable when editing. If there is 0 history and edits outside of the PCL will not override the 0 history. You must first edit the history in the context of a PCL. To facilitate this, create a temporary Location > Item > Customer hierarchy (or other combination) and edit at the lowest level within the context. Once the history is corrected you may then edit at the other hierarchical levels.
- The amount of history available to edit is controlled by the "Forecast history length (months)" under Forecast Settings within System Settings.
Forecast History Units Grid
The Adjusted row provides the capability to make user-defined manual adjustments (a.k.a. history editing). Users may directly enter edits to the historical values here.
- The value will be the same as the Initial value if there are no user-defined changes.
- The historical value is enabled for editing when :
- The historical value > 0 . The system allow editing of existing customer order values. Editing of negative historical values are not allowed.
- Value is 0 and user is at one PCL context. When there is 0 demand for a particular item, the systems allows to adjust a zero for a context of a single PCL at a time. When there is more than 1 PCL, there is no capability to edit a history of 0.
Color Coding in Adjusted History:
- Red color coding is applied when editing is disabled due to a negative value or 0 at a non-PCL level.
- Blue color coding is applied to an edited value.
Any historical edits that are made will impact the Traffic Light and the Demand plan is marked as outdated.
Adjusted row values will match the Forecast History line in the chart of Statistics and Plan tabs. In addition, adjusted values are used for forecast statistics and forecast disaggregation
The historical value has been edited from 61,253 to 100,000. Also note that an outlier adjustment has also been applied prior to the edit.
After running a new forecast, the final historical value is changed to 100,000. In addition, since the historical value is changed, the outlier historical value has also changed. These in turn affect the fitted forecast values which extend to producing new forecast values.
- Save newly entered adjusted history edits
- Revert existing adjusted history edits via opening a popup with options for date range (see below)
- Export all data
The revert function provides the capability to revert edits to the initial value within a set time period (Date Range) or all periods (Everything).
Please note that all reverts are top down within a hierarchy - reverts at upper levels of a hierarchy will revert all historical edits within the context of the level and period(s) selected.
Tool Tip Definitions
The following tool tips are displayed to further communicate color coding as described above.
- Period not taken in forecasting because of ignore last N buckets setting in header
- Tool Tip = "Period excluded from forecasting."
- 0 not editable on higher level in cell
- Tool Tip = "Zero value may only be edited at the PCL."
- Negative value not editable in cell
- Tool Tip = "Negative value may not be edited."
- Outlier in final forecast in cell
- Tool Tip = "Outlier adjustment applied." as shown in the example below.
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